AREA COUNTIES: SAC-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-ADAMS-UNION-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD…430 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TODAY AND TONIGHT – THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 169 BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE AREA ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING. STRONG WINDS AND HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE ARE POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES.

AREA COUNTIES: MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-PAGE…

TODAY AND TONIGHT – ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM IN EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN THAT TIME ARE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. STORMS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP OR SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE HAIL…DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

Today – Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Breezy, with a south wind 7 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight – Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 4am. Some storms could be severe, with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain. Low around 66. South southeast wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
Labor Day – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. West southwest wind around 9 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon.
Monday Night – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. North northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. West wind 3 to 8 mph.
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.

(click on image to enlarge) Area in yellow indicates a “Slight” risk of severe weather.

The National Weather Service in Des Moines reports thunderstorms are expected to develop during peak heating of the day Sunday along a cold front through the Missouri River Valley and then move into Iowa during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Some of the storms may be severe with heavy, potentially flooding rains. Large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes are all possible.

Many people will likely have outdoor plans this Labor Day weekend. Keep a close eye on the weather, have your safety plan in place and be ready to seek shelter if threatening weather approaches.

200 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

REST OF TODAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 80S. WEST WIND AROUND 5 MPH.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW IN THE MID 60S. SOUTH WIND NEAR 5 MPH.

SUNDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY. HIGH IN THE UPPER 80S. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT…THUNDERSTORMS. LOW IN THE MID 60S. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 80 PERCENT.

LABOR DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH AROUND 80. WEST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE UPPER 50S.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH AROUND 80. LOW AROUND 60.

WEDNESDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE MID 80S.

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Today Areas of fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 83. West northwest wind 5 to 7 mph.
Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 64. Light and variable wind becoming south southeast 5 to 7 mph after midnight.

Sunday A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with a south wind 8 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday Night Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 7pm. Low around 65. South southeast wind 8 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Labor Day A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. West southwest wind 8 to 10 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon.
Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 59.

Tuesday A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80

IA COUNTIES: MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE…1130 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING MAINLY OVER EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN…ISOLATED STORMS COULD ALSO BRIEFLY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME SMALL STREAMS IN THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FLOODING WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER FROM AROUND BROWNVILLE DOWNSTREAM TO PAST RULO.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD AGAIN MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY…MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS…LARGE HAIL…AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.  MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND AND DOWNSTREAM FROM BROWNVILLE.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. HOWEVER…SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT OMAHA. ALSO REPORT HAIL DIME SIZE OR LARGER AND STRONG WINDS IF THEY OCCUR.

A national report on climate change finds even with global warming, we’ll still have plenty of snow in the winters ahead in Iowa and across much of the country’s northern half. State Climatologist Harry Hillaker says climate change is very gradual and snow blowers and shovels will remain necessities. Hillaker says the report from M-I-T didn’t exactly go out on a limb in predicting continued snowy winters for Iowa.

“When you think about it, that’s not really much of a surprise, I guess the basic mechanism on how we get snow is not going to be changing in a warmer world,” Hillaker says. “The number of opportunities may be decreasing but the storms could be just as intense but probably not as frequent as what we’ve been seeing in years past.” The Old Farmers’ Almanac forecasts the winter ahead will be colder than usual, then next summer will be hotter. The publication predicts winter temperatures, precipitation and snowfall will all be below normal, with the coldest period running from early December into the first half of January. Hillaker says it’s an extreme challenge to accurately predict the weather several months in advance.

“Certainly, not very easily and there’s lots of outfits out there like the Farmer’s Almanac and some private forecasters that attempt to do that sort of thing,” Hillaker says. “I don’t know if anyone’s attempted any kind of study of how accurate those prognostications are, but certainly it’s very, very difficult and we’ve got a long ways to go in those longer-range outlooks.” While scientific advancements are making forecasts more on-target, Hillaker says no one can really predict now, at summer’s end, what the weather will be this winter.

“Certainly, the day-by-day forecasts, out a week or two, have gotten far, far better than they used to be just in the last 20 or 30 years, tremendous improvements,” Hillaker says. “On that longer range, say from 30 days on out, there’s some skill there, but still a lot of guess work.” The M-I-T study predicts some regions will see less snowfall, but the snowfall extremes may actually intensify. Hillaker notes, Iowa’s had above-average snowfall in seven of the past eight winters.

(Radio Iowa)

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
701 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

…THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER…

EAST NISHNABOTNA RIVER AT RED OAK AFFECTING MONTGOMERY COUNTY.

* AT 6:45 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.3 FEET…OR 2.7 FEET BELOW
FLOOD STAGE.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* FORECAST…THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 17.8 FEET. THE
RIVER WILL FALL TO 13.6 FEET

829 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN IOWA…NODAWAY RIVER AT CLARINDA AFFECTING PAGE COUNTY.

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE NODAWAY RIVER AT CLARINDA.
* AT 7:15 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.1 FEET…OR 3.1 FEET ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 23.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST…THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 26.3 FEET BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT.