The (podcast) Freese-Notis weather forecast for the KJAN listening area, and weather information for Atlantic….

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429 AM CDT WED JUL 24 2013

EARLY THIS MORNING…MOSTLY CLEAR. NORTHEAST WIND NEAR 5 MPH.

TODAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 80S. NORTH WIND NEAR 5 MPH.

TONIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH WIND NEAR 5 MPH.

THURSDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE MID 80S. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOW IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH WIND NEAR 5 MPH.

FRIDAY…PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTH WIND NEAR 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE MID 50S. HIGH IN THE UPPER 70S.

A climatologist with Iowa State University Extension says regional weather patterns have entered an erratic period, but farmers can reap high rewards if they play the markets right. Climatologist Elwynn Taylor says over the last 140 years, there has tended to be 18 years of “benign” weather followed by 25 years of “volatile” weather.  “The kind of thing that gives much greater risk to the production of crops,” Taylor says. “Some years might be great, but other years might be a disaster. Of course 1936 — the worst production year in the Midwest in the past century — was in the middle of one of those 25-year periods.”

The major droughts of 1983 and ’88 and the massive flooding in 1993 were in the last “volatile” weather cycle, according to Taylor. “It was extreme weather and we also had some years with record-high crop yields,” Taylor says. “….We can get very good years (and) very bad years during what we call the ‘extreme years’ that go on for a 25-year period, historically.” Plant breeders have developed seed varieties that can endure heat, excessive moisture and drought — and Taylor says the pressure is now on farmers to analyze weather patterns and figure out when to sell their crop.

“People that work in the selling and buying of crops find that their greatest income is in periods of greatest volatility — where prices are going up and down, they can take advantage of this,” Taylor says. “Our farmers can do the same thing.” Taylor says buying crop insurance and selling their crops at the right time will help farmers yield greater profits during this 25-year cycle of “extreme” weather than during the previous18-year period of “benign” weather.

Taylor spoke today (Tuesday) at the Iowa Farm Bureau’s Economic Summit in Ames.

(Radio Iowa)

High winds, heavy rain and hail walloped parts of Iowa last night as a cold front pushed out the extreme heat. Meteorologist Rod Donovan, at the National Weather Service, says the biggest hail fell in north-central Iowa.The Clarion area reported two-inch diameter hail, as did Boone, with smaller hailstones the size of golf balls reported in Garner.

Some areas had tree damage with winds gusting to 65 miles an hour. In the KJAN listening area, quarter-sized hail was reported by spotters in Guthrie Center just after 9-p.m. Quarter-sized hail and winds of 40-50mph occurred near Bagley, in Guthrie County, at around 8:30-p.m. A few minutes earlier, nickel-to quarter-size hail fell in Avoca. Quarter-sized hail also fell at around 8:10-p.m., three-miles northeast of Shelby. Half-dollar-sized hail fell at around 7:20-p.m. four miles South of Missouri Valley in Pottawattamie Co., and quarter-to half-dollar sized hail fell at around 7:10-p.m., one-mile south of Missouri Valley, in Harrison Co.

Donovan says the storm front is leaving behind weather that’s much cooler that it was a year ago. The forecast is for highs in the 70s and 80s for the next several days with another cold front expected by the weekend, keeping highs only in the 70s. Last night’s severe storms forced the cancellation of a host of planned events in Perry for the thousands of overnight visitors on RAGBRAI, who head for Des Moines today.

(Radio Iowa/KJAN – Ric Hanson)

Rain fell in parts of Iowa this weekend providing some much needed moisture to Iowa corn and soybean fields, but the showers were isolated, for soil that has been drying back out. Iowa State Extension Agronomist Clark McGrath covers the counties from Carroll to the Missouri border. He says it’s dry, but conditions are better than last year.  “Last year at this time, it was entire fields, and this year, luckily, it’s portions of fields. So, yeah, we could us moisture,” McGrath says. “But after talking to people from across the state — actually RAGBRAI just came through and I talked to farmers from southeast Iowa and east-central Iowa — and they said that they felt like southwest Iowa here was some of the best stuff they’d seen, and I kinda agree with that.”

Joel DeJong is another extension agronomist who covers nine-western-Iowa counties from Sibley to Missouri Valley. He says the rain is important as the corn crop hits a critical stage.
“We’re entering that time period when it’s the most critical time period. It’s at pollination where we really determine where how many kernels we end up with on those ears. The next five weeks after that, it’s kernel fill, but the next four weeks determines what our ultimate potential is,” Dejong explains. “And so, if we can’t get rainfall we would like to bring our average daily temperatures down into that highs into the lower to mid-80s rather than the lower to mid 90s because, that drops daily moisture demand almost in half.”

Dejong says the crops are showing moisture stress. “We haven’t had but a half inch of rain in the last three, four weeks, so we’re starting to see more and more on a daily basis, those plants curling, particularly in the corn fields — and in the lighter soils — the corn is basically turning white,” according to DeJong. He says the plants need an inch of rain daily at this stage of their growth.

(Radio Iowa)

The (podcast) Freese-Notis weather forecast for the KJAN listening area, and weather information for Atlantic….

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Today: Isolated showers and thunderstorms between 9am and 4pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 80. Northeast wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light in the evening.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 82. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph.
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 61. Southeast wind 3 to 5 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. South wind 5 to 9 mph.
Thursday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 80.

906 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN ADAIR COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...
  SOUTHERN DALLAS COUNTY IN CENTRAL IOWA...
  SOUTHEASTERN GUTHRIE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA...
  WESTERN JASPER COUNTY IN CENTRAL IOWA...
  NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...
  POLK COUNTY IN CENTRAL IOWA...
  NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...

* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT

* AT 905 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM COLFAX TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF GUTHRIE CENTER...AND
  MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

  HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

  SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
           ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 430…PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING…IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN IOWA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 28 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL IOWA

BOONE DALLAS JASPER MARSHALL POLK POWESHIEK STORY

IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA

APPANOOSE CLARKE DECATUR LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MONROE RINGGOLD

UNION WARREN WAYNE

IN SOUTHEAST IOWA

DAVIS WAPELLO

IN SOUTHWEST IOWA

ADAIR ADAMS CASS TAYLOR

IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA

AUDUBON GREENE GUTHRIE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…ADEL…ALBIA…AMES…ATLANTIC… AUDUBON…BEDFORD…BLOOMFIELD…BOONE…CENTERVILLE…CHARITON…CORNING…CORYDON…CRESTON…DES MOINES…GREENFIELD…GRINNELL…GUTHRIE CENTER…INDIANOLA…JEFFERSON… KNOXVILLE…LAMONI…MARSHALLTOWN…MOUNT AYR…NEWTON…OSCEOLA… OSKALOOSA…OTTUMWA AND WINTERSET.

Hail events reported to and from the National Weather Service include:

9:04-p.m. Quarter-sized hail reported by spotters in Guthrie Center.

8:30-p.m. Quarter-sized hail and winds of 40-50mph near Bagley, in Guthrie County.

8:22-p.m. Nickel -to Quarter-size hail at Avoca in Pottawattamie Co.

8:12-p.m. Quarter-sized hail 3 miles NE of Shelby in Shelby County.

7:17-p.m. 1/2 dollar-sized hail 4 miles South of Missouri Valley in Pottawattamie Co.

7:10-p.m. Quarter-to half-dollar sized hail 1 mile S. of Missouri Valley in Harrison Co.