CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS AND CASS COUNTIES
423 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS TODAY AND THIS EVENING…ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY.
ADAIR-MADISON-ADAMS-UNION-TAYLOR AND RINGGOLD COUNTIES
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS TODAY AND THIS EVENING…ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. HIGH WINDS WILL BE A SECONDARY THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 400 PM AND 800 PM TODAY.
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT and PAGE COUNTIES….
356 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS…WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN HAZARD AND ALSO A RISK FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ALSO AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN’T BE RULED OUT.
340 AM CDT
TODAY…OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING…THEN THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY…WARMER. HIGH IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 90 PERCENT.
TONIGHT…MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING… THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. LOW IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
SUNDAY…PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING THEN CLEARING. BREEZY. HIGH IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WIND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER. LOW IN THE LOWER 40S. WEST WIND NEAR 10 MPH.
MONDAY…SUNNY. HIGH IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGH IN THE LOWER 70S.
NORMAN, Okla. (AP) – The Storm Prediction Center says severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday across the southern and central Plains as a cold front rolls out of the Rockies. Humid air could extend well into the Mississippi and Missouri valleys, making the atmosphere ripe for storms. The forecasters say the greatest chance for bad weather is from eastern Oklahoma to northeastern Iowa, including parts of Kansas and Missouri, but that storms are also possible from Texas into Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Supercells with hail and possibly tornadoes could occur, especially before the storms form a squall line. After a squall line forms, high winds could be worrisome. The prediction center, based in Norman, Okla., categorizes the area from Austin, Texas, to Minneapolis and Milwaukee and Chicago as having a slight risk of severe storms.
The (podcast) Freese-Notis forecast for the KJAN listening area, and weather data for Atlantic….
The latest forecast shows severe weather making its way into Iowa tonight (Friday). National Weather Service Meteorologist Craig Cogill said late Thursday afternoon, that the initial primary threat will be heavy rain and hail, but the system has the potential to cause more serious damage on Saturday. “Right now, it looks like the best threat of severe weather is going to be across western Iowa where damaging winds, large hail and possibly a few tornadoes – especially during the late afternoon and evening hours – will be possible,” Cogill said. The much needed rain could range from one to two inches. If tornadoes touch down over the weekend in Iowa, it wouldn’t be unprecedented.
“Usually we see tornadoes in the fall about every other year or every third year,” Cogill said. “Certainly, it’s not a tornado season like we see from late April through June, but it’s not totally out of the question to see fall tornadoes.” The storm system is expected to leave Iowa Saturday night. The forecast for Sunday calls for highs mainly in the 60s.
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012
DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT:
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT…ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE OVERNIGHT WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE…INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS…LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE SEVERE STORMS ARE LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…
AN EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MULTI-MEDIA WEB BRIEFING HAS BEEN SCHEDULED FOR 1 PM ON FRIDAY. THIS BRIEFING WILL COVER THE UPCOMING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM TIME TO TIME LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN IOWA…
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS.
344 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012
TODAY…MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON…THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
TONIGHT…CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT…THEN THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WARMER. LOW IN THE MID 50S. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 70 PERCENT.
SATURDAY…THUNDERSTORMS…BREEZY…WARMER. HIGH IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 90 PERCENT.
SATURDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLOUDY. THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THROUGH MIDNIGHT…THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
SUNDAY…SUNNY…BREEZY. HIGH IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WIND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW IN THE MID 40S.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY…PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH IN THE MID 70S. LOW IN THE MID 50S.
Shelby County Emergency Management Coordinator Bob Seivert today (Thursday) advised the Fire Danger Index in his County is currently rated as “High.” Seivert says he expects winds to be strong this afternoon, and if there are any active fires, they will monitor the weather components very closely, and advise the local Incident Commander of dangerous conditions. Seivert says there should be NO OPEN BURNING in Shelby County today. The next local Fire Danger notice will be on Monday, Oct. 15th, unless unexpected changes in conditions occur.