U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley has closed the gap with Republican State Sen. Joni Ernst, leaving the Iowa U.S. Senate race a 47 – 47 percent dead heat, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today (Monday). Four percent remain undecided. That as compared to results of an October 29 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, showing Sen. Ernst at 49 percent and Rep. Braley at 45 percent.
The latest results show independent voters divided 44 – 44 percent. Republicans back Ernst 95 – 2 percent. Democrats back Braley 94 – 5 percent. Men and women still are locked in a reverse gender gap as women back the Democratic man 51 – 42 percent, while men back the Republican woman 52 – 44 percent. Braley leads 56 – 36 percent among those who already have voted.
One day before Election Day, 95 percent of Iowa likely voters who name a Senate candidate say their mind is made up, while 5 percent say they might change their mind. Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll, says “Iowa’s U.S. Senate race is a dead heat. The candidate who best gets his or her folks to the polls is going to win.”
Iowa likely voters remain divided on their feelings about the candidates:
• Ernst gets a 47 – 45 percent favorability;
• Braley gets a 43 – 45 percent likability score.
In the Iowa Governor’s Race, State Sen. Jack Hatch, the Democratic challenger in the governor’s race, inches up on long-time Republican Gov. Terry Branstad and now trails 52 – 41 percent among likely voters. This compares to Gov. Branstad’s 56 – 37 percent likely voter lead in an October 29 Quinnipiac University poll.
Men, women, Republicans and independent voters all back the long-time governor, while Democrats back Hatch 82 – 12 percent. Hatch leads 52 – 37 percent among those who already have voted.
Only 5 percent of voters who name a candidate say they might change their mind by tomorrow, while 95 percent say their mind is made up, Branstad gets a 57 – 35 percent favorability rating, compared to Hatch’s 36 – 27 percent score, with 34 percent who still don’t know enough about him to form an opinion.
From October 28 – November 2, Quinnipiac University surveyed 778 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.