(Radio Iowa) – A central Iowa entomologist says there may actually be some science behind the folklore about how the thickness of a woolly bear caterpillar’s stripes can help predict the severity of the winter ahead. Ginny Mitchell, of Boone, says a fellow entomologist in New York state studied the fuzzy creatures in the 1940s. “He sampled all of the woolly caterpillars in the area for nine years, and during that time, there was actually some correlation between the markings on the woolly caterpillar and the winter,” Mitchell says, “but that study had a very small sample size, so people do not consider it scientifically factual.” The black-and-brown caterpillars are prevalent in Iowa right now as they’re looking for safe places to spend the winter. As the story goes, Mitchell says the thickness of the caterpillar’s center stripe is key in weather forecasting.

“The rusty, kind of orange color, if that band is really big, that means we’re going to have a mild winter,” Mitchell says. “If the black parts of the woolly caterpillar are very large, it’s going to be a more severe winter. If there is more hair on the woolly caterpillar, then that means that it’s going to be a more severe winter.” There are also theories that if the caterpillar is crawling south when you find it, it’s trying to flee the looming northern cold, and the reverse, if it’s heading north, a mild winter is ahead. At least two communities — Vermilion, Ohio and Banner Elk, North Carolina — have fall festivals devoted to the alleged prognosticating abilities of the woolly bear caterpillar. One remarkable fact, Mitchell says these fuzzy critters hibernate during the wintertime and their bodies contain a sort of natural antifreeze.

“Say you’re out raking leaves or moving some brush and you find one, it will look like it’s dead. It’ll be curled up like a ‘C’ and it won’t be moving very much,” Mitchell says, “but if you take it inside and you warm it up, then it’ll start to move.” There are reports of wooly bear caterpillars surviving temperatures as low as 90-degrees below zero, even spending an entire winter frozen in an ice cube, to emerge just fine in the spring. Once temperatures warm up for the season, it will create a cocoon and emerge a few weeks later as an Alexandra or Isabella tiger moth.

Today: Areas of fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 53. Calm wind becoming north northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight: A 20 percent chance of rain after 5am. Patchy fog between 11pm and 5am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 39. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts to around 20 mph.
Friday: A 30 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 49. E/NE wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 56.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 59.
Monday: A 50 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 52.

Wednesday’s High in Atlantic was 44. Our Low this morning (as of 5-a.m.), was 31. Last year on this date (Nov. 20th), the High in Atlantic was 44 and the Low was 27. The Record High in Atlantic on 11/20 was 75 in 1933, while the Record Low was -1 in 1937 & 1985. Sunrise today: 7:14; Sunset is at 4:57.

Today: Patchy drizzle & fog this morning; Cloudy, with a high near 48. Wind S/SW @ around 5-10 mph this afternoon.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38.
Tomorrow: Partly sunny, with a high near 59. N/NW winds around 5-10 mph in the morning.
Tom. Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36.
Friday: Cloudy w/a 30% chance of rain, mainly after noon. A high near 50.
Friday Night: A 20% chance of rain before midnight. A low around 35.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 57.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 35.
Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 58.

Tuesday’s High in Atlantic was 45. The Low was 33. We received a Trace of rain overnight (drizzle). Last year on this date (Nov. 19th), the High in Atlantic was 52 and the Low was 33. The Record High in Atlantic on 11/19 was 73 in 1930, while the Record Low was -1 in 1914. Sunrise today: 7:13; Sunset is at 4:57.

(Radio Iowa) – Some forecasters are raising the possibility of heavy snowfall in Iowa next week, with an especially strong winter wallop for northern Iowa, potentially impacting Thanksgiving travel, but other forecasters are holding off on making a call until later. Meteorologist Dylan Dodson, at the National Weather Service, says Thanksgiving is still a bit too far away to make an accurate prediction.

“Our forecast only goes out seven days,” Dodson says. “Generally, beyond seven days, it gets a little bit more difficult to forecast, because the further you get from the current time, those possibilities start to expand. It’s kind of like that butterfly effect. As you get out further, those chances start to become less certain.” Computer forecasting models from the National Weather Service are -not- projecting anything that would make snowfall for Iowa likely in the six-to-ten day forecast.

“At least through the beginning of next week, we’re looking at above-normal temperatures — normal for this time of year is right around the upper 40s to 50 degrees for the Des Moines area — and then kind of cooler in the north, warmer in the south,” Dodson says, “so, leaning above-normal for temperatures and then also leaning slightly above-normal for precipitation.” With the agency’s eight to 14-day forecast, he says temperatures are trending to near-normal with slightly above-normal precipitation. But is a ten-inch snowfall before Thanksgiving likely?

“I wouldn’t say it’s unlikely at this point. I wouldn’t say it’s likely either,” Dodson says. “It’s just difficult to gauge that at the moment. We’ll be watching the forecast once it starts to get into the seven-day especially. We’ll definitely be starting to look at where the patterns are, but at the moment, there’s too much uncertainty to really hang your hat on anything.”

According to National Weather Service data from 1981 to 2010, the normal date for the first one-inch snowfall in northwest Iowa is between November 10th and 17th, with the first inch of snow typically falling much later in southeastern Iowa, between December 12th and the 19th.

Official NWS spotter reports:

Atlantic (KJAN), .10″

Atlantic (7.1 miles N/NE), .19″

Council Bluffs, .36″

Creston (8.3 miles W/NW of town), .08″

Earling, .35″

Hastings, .01″

Massena, .12″

Missouri Valley, .19″

Mondamin,  .14″

New Market, .01″

Pacific Junction, .04″

Persia, .42″

Stuart (.5″ W/SW), .28″

Thurman, TR (Trace)

Other reports from area media and/or from the public:

Kirkman, .18″

Marne, .25″

Shenandoah, .02″

N. of Neola, .20″

Villisca, .15″

Today: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50. North wind 5 to 10 mph.
Tonight: Cloudy, with a low around 37.
Tomorrow: Cloudy in the morning; Gradually becoming mostly sunny. High near 54. Winds S/SW @ 5-10.
Tom. Night: Partly cloudy. A low around 38.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 58.
Thursday Night: A 30% chance of rain, mainly after midnight. A low around 35.
Friday: A 40% chance of rain. A high near 46.

Monday’s High in Atlantic was 58. Our Low this morning was 33. We received .10″ rain overnight. Last year on this date (Nov. 18th), the High in Atlantic was 62 and the Low was 44. The Record High in Atlantic on 11/18 was 72 in 1999, while the Record Low was 0 in 1891. Sunrise today: 7:121; Sunset is at 4:58.

Today: Increasing clouds; Breezy, w/a 20% chance of rain. A high near 55. Winds SE @ 15-30 mph.
Tonight: A 40% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low around 39. East winds 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Tom. Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36.
Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 56.
Wednesday Night: A 30% chance of rain, mainly after midnight, and a low around 41.
Thursday: A 30% chance of rain, w/thunderstorms after noon. A high near 58.

Sunday’s High in Atlantic was 55. The Low was 28. Last year on this date (Nov. 17th), the High in Atlantic was 54 and the Low was 35. The Record High in Atlantic on 11/17 was 73 in 1941, while the Record Low was -2 in 1959. Sunrise today: 7:11; Sunset is at 4:59.

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 52. Light and variable wind becoming northeast around 5 mph this afternoon.
Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 37. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Monday: Partly cloudy-to-cloudy & breezy, w/a slight chance of rain after 3pm. A high near 54. Winds SE @ 10-15 mph w/gusts  to near 30 mph.
Monday Night: A 40% chance of rain & a  low around 40. SE winds @ 15-25 mph.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north northeast in the afternoon.
Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 55.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy w/a 30 % chance of rain & a high near 55.

Saturday’s High of 74 in Atlantic was 69. Our Low this morning, was 27. Last year on this date (Nov. 16th), the High in Atlantic was 61 and the Low was 35. The Record High in Atlantic on 11/16 was 73 in 2001, while the Record Low was 1 in 1955. Sunrise today: 7:09; Sunset is at 4:59.

Today: Partly sunny-to-sunny. A high near 67. West winds @ 5-10 becoming north & gusting to near 25 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 33. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 53. Winds becoming E/NE @ around 5-10 in the afternoon.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 35. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Monday: Partly sunny w/a 30% chance of rain in the afternoon. A high near 54.
Monday Night: A 40% chance of rain, mainly before midnight, & a low around 36.
Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 52.
Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 53.

Friday’s High of 74 in Atlantic broke a 128-year-old record for Nov. 14th. The old record of 72, was set in 1897, 1964 & 1990. Our (24-hour) Low ending at 7-a.m. today is 33. Last year on this date (Nov. 15th), the High in Atlantic was 65 and the Low was 27. The Record High in Atlantic on 11/15 was 75 in 2001, while the Record Low was -7 in 1940. Sunrise today: 7:08; Sunset is at 5-p.m.

Today: Sunny, with a high near 73. South southwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts to near 20 mph.
Tonight: Increasing clouds, with a low around 51. Winds S/SW @ 10-20 mph.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy early. Gradually becoming sunny. A high near 67. Winds W @ 10-20 shifting to the North.
Sat. Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 35.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 56.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 35.
Monday: Mostly cloudy w/a 40% chance of rain, mainly during the afternoon. A high near 49.
Monday Night: A 50% chance of rain before midnight. A low around 30.
Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 44.

Thursday’s High in Atlantic was 70. The Low was 29. Last year on this date (Nov. 14th), the High in Atlantic was 54 & the Low was 27. The Record High for Nov. 14th in Atlantic, was 72 in 1897, 1964 & 1990. The Record Low was -5 in 1940. Sunrise: 7:07; Sunset: 5:01.