In anticipation of the rapid drying conditions forecast for this weekend, Shelby County Emergency Management officials say they will begin bi-weekly local fire danger assessments, next week.

Spring cleanup time is traditionally when a lot of people burn their brush piles.Officials say being aware of the potential for that small fire to spread due to wind and other meteorological conditions, conducive to rapid fire spread, is what the Fire Danger Assessment Program is all about. Monitoring the burning conditions will allow authorities to advise residents as to whether a controlled, open burn should be put off to a more favorable day, and save area volunteer firefighters from leaving their jobs for a burn which becomes uncontrollable.

Shelby County Emergency Management asks you to please call your controlled burns in to the Emergency Management Agency at 712-755-2124. Officials will take your information and put you in touch with the Fire Chief in your community.

The experts say major flooding on the Missouri River is NOT likely this year, but the runoff forecast in the basin above Sioux City has risen to 121-percent of normal, according to the U-S Army Corps of Engineers. Jody Farhat, chief of the Corps’ Missouri River Basin Water Management Division in Omaha, says while mountain snowpack is above average, they don’t expect a repeat of the widespread flooding of 2011.

“Runoff in the Missouri basin comes from three sources: plains snowpack, mountain snowpack and rainfall,” Farhat says. “It’s important to remember that the 2011 flood was the result of high runoff from all three of these sources. Currently, only one of those three conditions exists today, the above-normal mountain snowpack, so a repeat of the 2011 flood is highly unlikely.” Farhat says there is better communication now compared to three years ago.

“We do a lot more coordination now with the other federal agencies, the state climatologists and local folks on developing our runoff forecast and that’s a pretty significant change,” Farhat says. “We’re working with all of the folks that are gathering data and making sure that we’re all singing of the same sheet of music.” Dennis Todey, the South Dakota state climatologist who works with the Corps on forecasting, says the heavy rain storms that kicked off the massive 2011 flooding were very unusual.

“We can’t give any kind of a long-range outlook to say that something like that kind of storm in Montana in 2011 could or couldn’t happen again, but from a climatological perspective, that was a freakishly large storm where you had 50% of your annual rainfall in one event,” Todey says. “People need to understand that about how bizarre that precipitation event really was.” Farhat says the only areas that may see some minor flooding this year are downstream in Kansas and Missouri.

Earlier this week, the National Weather Service released its annual report on spring flooding risks in eastern Iowa. It said the flood risk for the Mississippi River from Dubuque to Burlington is above normal, the risk for the Cedar River at Cedar Rapids is normal, and the flood risk for the Iowa River at Iowa City is below-normal.

(Radio Iowa)

(Updated 3:56-a.m. – NWS/Des Moines)

Today: Sunny, with a high near 65. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 6 to 11 mph increasing to 13 to 18 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 36. Southwest wind around 11 mph.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 55. Breezy, with a northwest wind 10 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 31. West northwest wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light and variable after midnight.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 54. East southeast wind 6 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Saturday Night: A chance of rain before 1am, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 38.

The (Podcast) Freese-Notis weather forecast for the KJAN listening area and weather information for Atlantic…

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Today: Partly sunny, with a high near 43. Breezy, with a north northwest wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. North northwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 63. West southwest wind 7 to 11 mph.
Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 35. Southwest wind 8 to 11 mph.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 55. Northwest wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 31.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 51.
Saturday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 41.

COUNTIES: CRAWFORD-CARROLL-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-CASS- ADAIR-MADISON-ADAMS-UNION-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-PAGE…WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

* TIMING…THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* WINDS…NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFT NORTH TO NORTHWEST BY AROUND SUNRISE.

* IMPACTS…ANY OUTDOOR OBJECTS NOT FASTENED DOWN WILL LIKELY BE

BLOWN AROUND DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. IN ADDITION…THERE IS THE

POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO

THE EVENING HOURS…AND COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE

DIFFICULT TRAVEL…ESPECIALLY ON WEST TO EAST ORIENTED ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT…ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

COUNTIES: CRAWFORD-CARROLL-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-ADAMS-UNION-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-
1224 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

…STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING…

GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

DRIVING…ESPECIALLY ON WEST TO EAST HIGHWAYS…MAY BE DIFFICULT
DUE TO THE GUSTY NORTH WIND.

COUNTY: HARRISON…WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING…

COUNTIES:  SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-PAGE…WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING…

* WINDS…NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED.

* TIMING…THE WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MID AFTERNOON…PEAKING
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME…AND THEN DECREASE BY MID
EVENING.

* IMPACTS…OUTDOOR OBJECTS SHOULD BE SECURED SO THAT THEY ARE NOT
BLOWN ABOUT BY THE STRONG WINDS. DRIVING MAY BE DIFFICULT DUE TO
STRONG WINDS AND SUDDEN GUSTS…ESPECIALLY ON WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT…ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

Today: Rain likely before 5pm, then rain and snow. Temperature rising to near 42 by 8am, then falling to around 38 during the remainder of the day. Windy, with a north northeast wind 6 to 11 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Tonight: Rain and snow before 10pm, then a chance of snow between 10pm and 1am. Low around 24. Windy, with a north wind 14 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Wednesday: Scattered flurries before 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 39. North northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 28. North northwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 56. Southwest wind 7 to 11 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 35.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 53.

The Freese-Notis Weather forecast and weather info. for Atlantic.

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