(Radio Iowa) – Iowa’s in the midst of a what’s called a snow drought, according to the state climatologist. While we had three weekends in a row of heavy snows starting right after Thanksgiving, Justin Glisan says there’s been very little statewide snowfall since then. While some Iowans may rejoice at having to do less shoveling, Glisan says it may become a problem once spring arrives — especially for farmers — if there’s little snowmelt and runoff in our rivers. “We’re in a snow drought across the upper Midwest,” Glisan says. “We’ve been running, after a fast start at the end of November and into December, we’re about 2.3 inches statewide average, and that’s about 6 inches below average.”

The new year started out warmer than normal in Iowa, which meant winter storms were dropping more rain than snow. “The interesting thing on the precipitation side is the rainfall event we had early in January,” Glisan says. “We had a wide swath of rainfall — in January — that amounted to, through the state, over nine-tenths of an inch for the monthly average, and that’s about 4/100ths below average.” January was something of a roller-coaster month for temperatures, Glisan says, but we ended up with an average statewide temp of 19-point-3 degrees, just two-tenths of a degree below average. “If you look at the first half of the month, we were running six degrees warmer than average, and then the cold snap through the end of the month dropped that average by about six degrees,” Glisan says, “so here we are, just right around average in terms of temperature.”

Long-range forecasts point to that groundhog being correct, he says, with six more weeks of winter ahead. “If you look at the short-term outlooks for the first half of the month, though, they tell a different story on the temperature side,” Glisan says, “higher probabilities of warmer-than-average temperatures, and we’ll see the temperatures rise through this week and into next week.”

Forecasts call for parts of Iowa to see temps climb into the 50s next week. While the calendar shows winter will last through March 19th, meteorological winter ends February 28th.