(Radio Iowa) – A survey of supply managers in Iowa and eight other states shows Midwestern manufacturers ended 2025 with another downturn, reporting job losses for the ninth straight month. Creighton University Economics Professor Ernie Goss says the region’s main economic indicator sank to its lowest level for the year during December, and much of the decline is being blamed on tariffs enacted by the Trump administration and by other nations in response.

“Small firms are taking it on the chin right now, with tariffs having much more of an impact on small firms than large firms. We’re seeing that continuing for manufacturing as well,” Goss says. “Tariffs elevated in importance. They’re all of a sudden mattering. Everybody who said, ‘Well, tariffs don’t matter,’ they do matter. They are mattering. They will matter even more in the first half of 2026.” The December employment index on the survey sank to the lowest reading since May of 2024. Supply managers surveyed reported weakness in both imports and exports, while urban areas across the Midwest fared better than most ag-based rural areas, and Goss sees the trend continuing.

“Now, what about the next six months? We’re talking about the economy. Still, I won’t call it jobless, there are some jobs, but not enough,” Goss says. “We’re talking about moving slightly up to sideways. Manufacturing, likewise. The second six months, I think we’re going to see a rebound, now, this is all circumspect depending on what happens going forward.” Goss says some of the business leaders surveyed say tariffs have increased input costs by a minimum of 10 percent to as much as 48 percent, and in many cases, those higher costs are being passed on to consumers. “Twenty-five percent of the survey participants said that tariffs were pushing up prices more than 15 percent,” Goss says, “and 37.5 percent do not support the Trump tariffs, so what we’re seeing is increasing resistance to the tariffs of the Trump administration.”

The survey uses a zero to one-hundred scale, with 50 being growth neutral. Goss says Iowa’s main economic indicator dropped to 44.6 in December from a reading of 52.1 in November. He says federal data shows Iowa manufacturing exports for the first three quarters of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, fell from $11.5 billion to $10.5 billion — that’s a nine-percent decline.