(Radio Iowa) – The latest Creighton University Rural Mainstreet survey shows nearly 63 percent of rural bank C-E-Os in Iowa and nine other Midwest states believe the rural economy is either in a recession now or will sink into recession next year. Creighton University economist Ernie Goss directs the survey and calculates a monthly economic index for the region. It has fallen to its lowest level since May of 2020.

“That’s problematic for those rural areas just simply because it’s individuals that are dependent on agriculture,” Goss says, “and that links to urban areas as well.” According to the International Trade Association, Iowa has exported more than a BILLION dollars worth of agricultural goods and livestock so far this year — about 28 percent above last year’s tally.

However, over 18 percent of the rural bankers who responded to the Creighton survey expect farmers in their area will wind up earning less than they spent raising crops and livestock this year. “The agricultural economy and the Mainstreet economy tied to it is not doing very well,” Goss says. “It’s being pulled down by weak commodity prices particularly grain, of course, but also…the high cost of inputs.”

Ernie Goss (Creighton University photo)

About 58 percent of the bank C-E-Os expect farmland prices to fall next year. “Farmers are in a pinch, but the good news — and we’ve been asking this question across many months about the paying back of loans — and the farmers in my judgement have been very vigilant about borrowing and the bankers have been very vigilant about lending. In other words, it’s not a return to the ’80s yet and we don’t see it there.”

Goss says data indicates there’s been an uptick in farmland prices in Iowa so far this month.