(Radio Iowa) – With Republicans Kim Reynolds and Joni Ernst deciding not to run for reelection, Iowa will have open races for governor and the U.S. senate for the first time since 1968. Iowa State University political science professor Karen Kedrowski said it’s rare in Iowa because governors here have no term limits and Tom Harkin served in the U.S. Senate for 30 years, while Chuck Grassley has been a U.S. senator since 1981. “Having both a senate race and a gubernatorial race open on the ballot is much more common in other states and it certainly does help drive up voter turnout,” Kedrowski said.

Incumbents typically have a huge advantage in elections. In 2024, 94% of incumbents won, but Kedrowski said it’s likely Ernst saw that in 2026 she would face serious headwinds in a bid to win a third term. University of Northern Iowa political science professor Donna Hoffman said “in this day and age, sheer exhaustion” may prompt some incumbents to retire from public life. “People who are in public service are getting lots more death threats, doing town halls with unruly constituents,” Hoffman said, “and so I think when you have somebody who appears to be holding back maybe a little bit you always question why that is and what the true nature of these jobs right now because they are I think really, really difficult.”

And Hoffman noted Ernst had faced fierce criticism from Trump supporters for failing to immediately support Pete Hegseth, although Ernst did vote to confirm him as U.S. defense secretary. Ernst broke the so-called glass ceiling in Iowa politics in 2014 as the first woman elected to federal office. Iowans have elected four other women in congress since then — and Iowa’s governor and lieutenant governor are women. “Iowa was one of only two states that had never elected a woman to the U.S. congress — either the House or the Senate, so once she got elected it really changed the nature and tenor of politics in Iowa,” said Kedrowski, director of the Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and Politics at I.S.U.

Iowa State University political science professor Dave Peterson’s research focuses on elections and voting behavior and he’s not that surprised by Ernst’s decision to retire from the Senate after 12 years. “She did originally promise to serve two terms,” Peterson said. “Even though she’s in the majority and is in a position of relative influence in the senate, she hasn’t seemed to have quite the same enjoyment of the job.” Hoffman, who’s been a professor at the University of Northern Iowa for over 24 years, has co-authored books and articles about Iowa being a so-called “swing” state where candidates from both parties have succeeded. After the Iowa Republican Party’s sweep at the congressional and statehouse level in 2024, Hoffman said that makes Iowa’s 2026 election a fascinating election cycle for political scientists. “It’s not just two open seats for the governor and for the senate, but also we have competitive congressional races in three of the four (districts) it’s looking like as well,” Hoffman said.

Ernst, a Republican from Red Oak, was first elected in 2014, after Democrat Tom Harkin announced he would not seek reelection. She announced yesterday in a recorded video message that she would not run in 2026.