(Radio Iowa) – Iowa’s economy continues to show signs of stagnation along with the nine-state Midwestern region, according to the monthly survey of supply managers by Creighton University. On the zero-to-100 scale, a score of 50 is considered growth neutral, the midway point between an economy growing or shrinking. Iowa’s Business Conditions Index for July fell below 44 after a score of 48 in June. Creighton economist Ernie Goss says the Midwest as a whole fared a little better.

“It was down below growth neutral and that’s certainly not good, but it’s only slightly below growth neutral,” Goss says. “July’s number was 49.4, and that’s down from June’s 50.7.” According to federal data, Iowa’s manufacturing sector exported six-point-two billion dollars in goods during the first five months of this year, compared to six-point-nine billion for the same period a year ago. Goss says that’s a drop of more than ten-percent. “The manufacturing economy is moving sideways, and there’s little doubt about that,” Goss says. “A lot of it, what you’re seeing with the imports for example, the president’s trade policies, in my judgment, they’re having a negative impact on our surveys.”

Looking ahead six months, the region’s Business Confidence Index fell from a score of 50 in June to below 43 in July. Goss says concerns about tariffs and slowing new orders pushed supply managers’ expectations lower. He says only one in six supply managers expect economic conditions to improve in the next six months. Goss describes himself as “a vocal critic of tariffs, not of President Trump, just of that policy of his.”  “We asked the supply managers about switching from one supplier to another and only 6.7% said they switched from international to domestic,” Goss says, “so the idea of raising tariffs on imports to get the supply managers to buy from alternative domestically is not having an impact, much of an impact.”

The survey shows employment losses for the region for the fourth straight month. He says the Midwest lost nearly 13-thousand jobs during the past year, while the nation lost more than 89-thousand jobs.