Economists say Iowa’s lagging GDP due to job market, ag sector doldrums
July 7th, 2025 by Ric Hanson
(Radio Iowa) – A federal report on economic activity shows Iowa’s gross domestic product — or G-D-P — fell just over six percent in the first three months of the year. The G-D-P fell in 39 states, but Nebraska and Iowa tied for the biggest drop. Iowa State University economist Peter Orazem says Iowa’s has been growing more slowly than the rest of the country. “We started growing more slowly than the U.S. in 2018 and if you go back to the start of the pandemic, we’ve not added any jobs,” Orazum said, “so I don’t think Iowa has been doing particularly well not in just the last quarter, but the last seven years.” The latest figures show about about 36-thousand fewer people are in the Iowa workforce compared to early 2020.
“And Iowa goes into the pandemic as one of the older labor forces in the country,” Orazem says, “and so one of the problems that Iowa has faced since the pandemic recovery has been we simply don’t have enough workers to fill jobs, and atypically compared to other states.” Iowa State University ag economist Chad Hart says the feed grains side of Iowa’s agricultural sector is struggling right now, which has had an impact on ag-related manufacturing. “We think of Deere. We think of Kinze,” Hart says. “…We’ve seen the layoffs over the past year with those two big giants, along with a lot of other smaller firms doing that.” Hart says agricultural sector of Iowa’s economy took a hit a few years ago and then farm income dropped about four percent again in 2024.
“When we think about agriculture here in Iowa, it impacts all other sectors as well,” Hart says. “…When you think about what’s the biggest thing on the real estate side, that’s farm values…The crop insurance industry is a big industry here and so when you think about, ‘Ag slows down,’ all these other industries related to that slow down as well.” The two I-S-U economists made their comments during a recent appearance on Iowa Press on Iowa P-B-S. Last week, Governor Reynolds said the recent drop in Iowa’s G-D-P is linked to declines in Iowa’s ag sector, plus challenges in the state’s financial services and insurance industries. Iowa’s insurance industry accounts for about 11 percent of the state’s G-D-P.