(Radio Iowa) – State Climatologist Justin Glisan says the back and forth shifts from cold to warm are typical of the weather as we enter spring. He says the signs right now show a temporary move back to warmer temperatures. “So at least in the short term outlook getting into the middle of March, we do see a stronger signal for warmer than average temperatures. And then as we move into the third week of March, we are seeing an elevated signal for wetter conditions,” he says. Glisan says the weather is shifting out of a weak La Nina pattern and that will impact the rest of the spring.

“If you look at analog years, going back to 2000 of that transition from weak La Nina to neutral conditions in March, April, May, generally cooler temperatures, but also new normal to slightly wetter conditions west to east across the state,” Glisan says. Glisten says if the cooler trend happens it could mean we see less severe storms. “As you move through March, April, May, severe weather does ramp up, or the chances of severe weather does ramp up, but that cooler signal could suggest less instability in the atmosphere, temperature, moisture work hand in hand on instability and energy in the atmosphere to produce thunderstorms,” he says. Glisan says that would be a good thing if it holds true.

“It’s hard to tell what the severe weather season is going to look like, but at least on the temperature side, we’re not seeing a strong signal for warm temperatures right now, which could mitigate some severe weather,” he says. Wetter conditions would help with the dry conditions the state has experienced.