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The weather experts are still puzzled by long-range winter possibilities

News, Weather

November 12th, 2021 by Ric Hanson

(Radio Iowa) – As flurries fly across much of the state today (Friday), the experts still aren’t able to nail down what type of winter may lie ahead for Iowa or the Midwest. National Weather Service meteorologist Brett Albright says the forecast of another La Nina weather pattern will drive the winter weather across the Northern Plains, but how much snow may fall is still anyone’s guess. “In terms of total precip that we’re expecting here in Iowa and Nebraska, we could be above normal or below, there really isn’t a strong way to predict where that’s going to fall,” Albright says. “It does look like to our south, it’s going to be below, and then we’re caught in between a couple of areas here of above-normal precip being most likely this winter.”

The forecast models also show essentially a 50-50 chance of below- versus above-normal temperatures. Still, Albright says there is a narrow possibility of more snow in Iowa later in the winter. “There’s no strong signal for total precipitation, but there is a weak signal for more snowfall, particularly during the second half of the winter,” Albright says. “We’re looking for maybe when will more of our snow fall? We’d be looking more at certainly January into February if not latter January into February for the best, the highest chances of more of that snowfall.”

Despite recent heavy rains, the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting drought conditions to linger across much of the region into next spring.