US–Election 2020-Iowa Results, ADVISORY
February 9th, 2020 by Ric Hanson
The Associated Press has reviewed updated results of the Iowa caucuses provided Sunday evening by the Iowa Democratic Party and has decided that it remains unable to declare a winner based on the available information. The results, AP continues to believe, may not be fully accurate and are still subject to potential revision.
Following the Iowa Democratic Party’s release of new results, with 100% of precincts reporting, former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg leads Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders by two state delegate equivalents out of 2,152 counted. That is a margin of 0.09 percentage points.
However, there is still some evidence the party may not have accurately tabulated some of its results, including those released late Sunday following a series of revisions.
Further, Sanders’ campaign will ask for a recanvass of the results. A recanvass is not a recount, but a check of the vote count to ensure the results were added correctly. The candidate have until 1 p.m. ET on Monday to request a recanvass, a deadline that was extended by the party from Friday.
AP will continue to monitor the race, including the results of any potential recanvass or recount. Unlike a government-run primary election, the Iowa caucuses are an event run by the Iowa Democratic Party. For the first time, the party in 2020 released three sets of results from its caucuses: the “first alignment” and “final alignment” of caucusgoers, as well as the number of “state delegate equivalents” that each candidate receives. Previously, it released only the tally of state delegate equivalents.
During the caucuses, voters arriving at their caucus site filled out a card that lists their first choice; those results determine the “first alignment.” Caucusgoers whose first-choice candidate failed to get at least 15% of the vote at their caucus site could switch their support to a different candidate. After they had done so, the results were tabulated again to determine the caucus site’s “final alignment.”
The final alignment votes were then used to calculate the number of state convention delegates — or “state delegate equivalents” — awarded to each candidate. There is evidence the party did not accurately tabulate some final alignment votes or correctly award state delegate equivalents in some precincts.
AP has always declared the winner of the Iowa caucuses based on the number of state delegate equivalents each candidate receives. That’s because Democrats choose their overall nominee based on delegates. While the first alignment and final alignment provide insight into the process, state delegate equivalents have the most direct bearing on the metric Democrats use to pick their nominee.