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Three ‘winners’ possible on Caucus Night

News

January 31st, 2020 by Ric Hanson

(Radio Iowa) — The Iowa Democratic Party will declare a winner in this year’s Caucuses as it always has — based on which candidate tops the calculation for number of delegates for the party’s state convention. However, for the first time, Democrats also will release two other tallies. One will represent the raw vote count for each candidate at the start of the evening. The second will be how people re-align, since some candidates will not have enough support in precincts to win any delegates. Professor David Redlawsk, author of the book “Why Iowa?” about the 2008 Caucuses, says that means there’s the potential that three candidates will claim victory.

“We could have a different initial vote. We could have a different realigned vote and then because delegate allocation is not exactly one-person-one-vote because of the way they’re allocated, we could have something else on the delegate allocation. You know: ‘You’re a winner. You’re a winner. You’re a winner,'” Redlawsk says. “Of course, the key with Iowa is not as much winning as it is surprising and getting everybody to talk about you the next day.”

Redlawsk made his comments during an appearance on Iowa P-B-S. The Democratic Party will release ALL THREE FIGURES all at once, after ALL precincts have reported. That means there will be no “early returns” but just one announcement at some time Monday evening — or perhaps Tuesday morning.