WASHINGTON (AP) — Government forecasters say this winter will probably have big swings in weather. The National Weather Service predicts there’s a slight chance it will be warmer in most of the United States and no place will be colder than normal. It forecasts a wetter than normal winter for a swath of northern states from Montana to New York, dipping south to the northern half of Virginia. But forecasters admitted Thursday they aren’t too confident in the outlook for December through February.

Mike Halpert from the service’s Climate Prediction Center, says that’s because there’s no El Nino or La Nina in the central Pacific. Those are often key drivers of winter weather. That leaves other smaller more temporary factors to take charge. Halpert said those often lead to dramatic weather swings.