(Radio Iowa) – Creighton University economist Ernie Goss says his December survey of bank C-E-Os in rural areas shows what may have been what he calls a “Trump bump” in the Midwest economy after the election has evaporated. The survey’s Rural Mainstreet Index was positive in November — the first and now only positive reading in 2024. “It’s not been good. It’s been tough,” Goss says. “Seventeen straight months of ag equipment sales.” And Goss says John Deere layoffs, for example, have had a trickle down effect to the smaller businesses that supply the parts for tractors and other John Deere products.

“2025, the first portion, is going to be little tougher, but I’m pretty positive about the second portion,” Goss says. “I’m hoping that President Trump negotiates some good trade agreements with China, selling more…Iowa soybeans, Iowa pork to China, so I’m most positive in that regard.” But Goss says if Trump imposes new tariffs on Canada, Mexico AND China, it’s likely those countries would retaliate against American products. And it’s unlikely farmers would get the kind of trade disruption payments they received during the previous Trump Administration.

“The deficit and debt are significantly higher now than they were in 2017 and 2018,” Goss says. “The ability to assist those industries that are negatively affected is much reduced.”

Goss made his comments during an appearance on Iowa Press on Iowa P-B-S.