We’re almost a month into fall and already talk is turning to the winter ahead. The weather pattern known as El Nino continues to strengthen and promises to be one of the strongest on record. State climatologist Harry Hillaker says it could mean Iowans are in store for a less severe winter ahead. “The stronger the El Nino becomes, generally, the higher the odds are that we’d have a warmer-than-normal mid-winter period in Iowa,” Hillaker says. “That would be from roughly early to mid-December to the early part of March.”

That’s usually the coldest time of the year anyway, so Hillaker warns it will still be cold, perhaps just not as cold as during a typical winter. Still, he says not to bet on the warmer winter. “Every once in a while, we do get exceptions to this tendency for mild El Nino winters in Iowa,” Hillaker says. “The last El Nino event, which was a medium-strength event six years ago, ended up bringing us an unusually cold and snowy winter.”

The El Nino is characterized by warm water in the central and east-central Pacific Ocean. Forecasters say the last time the El Nino system promised to be this strong was during the winter of 1997-98, which ended up being one of Iowa’s warmer winters on record.

(Radio Iowa)