By Nicole Heslip (Brownfield)
An ag meteorologist says the shift to El Niño weather conditions is well underway.
Matt Makens tells Brownfield, “With getting some water into Texas, Oklahoma, some recent heavy water in Nebraska, the Dakotas, Minnesota, Iowa too, we’re seeing this transition unfold.”
“It’s really going to be most notable as we go through November and December,” he says.
He says warmer temperatures in the tropical Pacific typically mean mild and warmer-than-normal winters.
“And that area of ocean is incredibly warm,” he says. “Depending on the data set you look at, it is the historically warmest point now than it ever has been.”
Makens says a historically early Polar Vortex could bring colder temperatures near Thanksgiving, but he’s doubtful.
“The way that the energy is going to be translated is going to be absorbed by the atmosphere rather than reflecting it down toward us,” he explains.
He says cold events during El Niño winters are generally shorter and less frequent.
“So if you’re in Nebraska, Minnesota, wherever, you still have that risk of cold to hit you,” he explains. “If that animal is soaking in the sunshine Christmas Day and it’s 80 degrees, whatever, and then the next week it’s down to 20 below or something, obviously there’s that health impact too.”
He says El Niño patterns can also change mid-winter, potentially bringing colder and wetter conditions at the start of spring.
