University of Northern Iowa political science professor Donna Hoffmann says three of Iowa’s four congressional races were considered competitive at the beginning of the year and seem to be among the country’s most competitive as election day draws near.
Hoffmann published research in early 2023 suggesting recent electoral history and Iowa’s non-partisan process for drawing district lines indicate three of Iowa’s congressional districts are prone to have competitive races.
The second congressional district covers 22 counties and includes the cities of Mason City, Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, and Dubuque. There are four candidates on the ballot in the second district Democrat Lindsay James, Republican Joe Mitchell, Libertarian Rick Stewart and independent Dave Bushaw (buh-SHAW).
About a third of voters in the second congressional district have either registered as no-party independents OR with a third-party, like the Libertarian Party. In Iowa’s third congressional district, 36 percent of registered voters are Republicans and 33 percent are Democrats. In the first district, there are four-and-a-half percent more Republicans compared to Democrats. In Iowa’s fourth congressional district, nearly half of registered voters are Republicans and political forecasters predict a Republican will easily win the seat.
