Skyscan Forecast for May 5, 2012

Today: Scattered showers early this morning with patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Southeast winds 7-16 MPH

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms overnight. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 67.

Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 79.

Sunday Night: Showers and thunderstorms overnight. Otherwise, mostly cloudy with a low around 52.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 69.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 68.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE

WS 241 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 550 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 241 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS.

IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE: FREMONT HARRISON MILLS MONONA MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY

COUNTIES: EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-

303 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THESE STORMS COULD ALSO BRING HEAVY RAINS ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE SLOWER MOVING STORMS AS MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE REGION.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

OUR RECENT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY STILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING REMAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION. OTHER LESSER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK…BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

Residents in southeast Iowa’s Henry County are getting a good look at the damage from last night’s (Thursday) apparent tornado. It touched down about halfway between Mount Pleasant and Washington. No one’s reported hurt but several homes and farmsteads were damaged, including a large turkey farm near Wayland. Dozens of neighbors gathered to help round up about a thousand turkeys after the barn was blown away. National Weather Service meteorologist Jeff Zogg says much of the state had severe weather overnight.  “We received a lot of hail reports of one-inch or larger across the northern part of the state and then later in the evening those storms died out,” Zogg says. “The strongest storms occurred in the eastern part of the state where there were a lot of hail reports, a lot of flash flooding occurred.” 

Nickel-sized hail was reported early this (Friday) morning in Adams County. Emergency management officials said the hail fell near Prescott, at around 3-a.m. Zogg says there’s a chance for more thunderstorms across much of Iowa today and through the weekend. “We’re in for an unsettled weekend in terms of thunderstorm activity,” he says. “During the day today, there’s a chance of thunderstorms statewide, better chances this evening and tonight statewide. Some storms this evening and early overnight may be severe with hail and strong winds.” He says Iowans need to keep a close watch on the skies — and the forecast — as conditions can quickly change.

“Any thunderstorm that does develop will have the potential to produce heavy rains and possible flash flooding,” Zogg says. “It looks like there’ll be another chance of thunderstorms during the day on Saturday and into Saturday night and early Sunday. Finally, late this weekend, Sunday night into Monday, a cold front will push through the state and take a lot of the thunderstorm activity and humid weather with it.”  High temperatures topped off in many Iowa cities in the 80s and 90s this week. He says highs by Monday may only be in the 60s and 70s.

(Matt Kelley-Radio Iowa/Ric Hanson-KJAN)

FOR MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT & PAGE COUNTIES IN WESTERN IOWA….

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA…THEN THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS A SECONDARY CONCERN.

INCREASING HUMIDITY ON SOUTH WINDS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING WILL PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN THE OUTLOOK AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON…AIDED BY A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOP NEAR THIS STATIONARY WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE TO PRODUCE A TORNADO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT OR DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA DURING THE EVENING…WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY…

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAP ANY DEVELOPMENT UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THAT FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING…THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE REST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS…EVEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS…AS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH.

GREENE-BOONE-GUTHRIE & DALLAS COUNTIES:

…AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL IOWA…

DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL IOWA THIS MORNING…WITH SOME LOCATIONS REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN
A QUARTER OF A MILE. SOME OF THE MAJOR ROADS IMPACTED BY THIS FOG
INCLUDE IOWA STATE HIGHWAY 141 AND US HIGHWAYS 169 AND 30.

IF YOU ENCOUNTER THIS FOG…SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA SPACE BETWEEN YOU
AND THE DRIVER AHEAD OF YOU. THIS FOG SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS.

Here’s the Freese-Notis (Podcast) forecast for Atlantic & the KJAN listening area, and the weather stat’s for Atlantic….

Podcast: Play in new window | Download (1.3MB)

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Today: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Calm wind becoming south southeast between 6 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. South southeast wind between 5 and 9 mph. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Southeast wind between 7 and 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Saturday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Southeast wind between 7 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Sunday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. Breezy, with a east wind 5 to 8 mph becoming north between 13 and 16 mph. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Sunday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 70.

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 710 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

TORNADO WATCH 234 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS:

IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE CASS CLARKE DAVIS DECATUR DES MOINES HENRY JEFFERSON KEOKUK LEE LOUISA LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MONROE RINGGOLD TAYLOR UNION VAN BUREN WAPELLO WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dmx/

341 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PARTLY SUNNY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 20 PERCENT.

TONIGHT…MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING…THEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WIND NEAR 5 MPH. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 40 PERCENT.

FRIDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOW IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.

SATURDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. HIGH IN THE MID 80S. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT…THEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. BREEZY. LOW IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 50 PERCENT.

SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. BREEZY. HIGH IN THE UPPER 70S. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 60 PERCENT.