By John Perkins (Brownfield)
The USDA has lowered its 2026 U.S. corn production guess, while increasing the outlook for soybeans.
Corn is now pegged at 15.893 billion bushels, slightly less than October, but still the second largest of all time, after a cut in yield, from 181.2 bushels per acre to 179.6 bushels per acre. Harvested area held at 88.596 million acres.
Soybeans are seen at a record 4.574 billion bushels, modestly more than last month on a higher yield projection, from 53.1 bushels per acre to 53.3 bushels per acre, with harvested area of 85.881 million acres.
Those numbers will change as harvest wraps up.
In 2025, U.S. corn production was 16.694 billion bushels with an average yield of 186.5 bushels per acre on harvested area of 90.948 million acres, while soybean production was 4.261 billion bushels with an average yield of 53 bushels per acre on harvested area of 80.417 million acres.
New crop ending stocks estimates for both corn and beans were tighter, largely due to higher export expectations for soybeans and the cut in production for corn.
Corn ending stocks are currently called at 1.758 billion bushels, a decline of 91 million, with lower production and less feed and residual use, along with a cut in exports. The average estimated 2026/27 farm price is $4.60 per bushel, compared to $4.70 in October and $4.16 for 2025/26.
The current guess for soybean ending stocks is 300 million bushels, 15 million lower on that larger export guess, a mild bump up in seed use, and a small reduction for residual use. The average 2026/27 farm price is $12.10 per bushel, compared to $12 a month ago and $10.50 for the prior marketing year.
Wheat ending stocks were up 3 million on the month to 743 million due lower food use. The average estimated 2026/27 farm price is $6.20 per bushel, compared to $6.30 last month and $5.06 last marketing year.
Globally, the USDA raised corn production for Argentina and Brazil, leaving the soybean estimates unchanged for now, while increasing world wheat production and ending stocks.
In the world corn tables, along with the higher South American production, exports were up for Argentina, down for Russia and Ukraine due to the ongoing shipping issues out of the Black Sea.
Global soybean exports were slightly higher on whole bean expectations for Argentina. Imports by China were left at 115 million tons.
For world wheat, production was up in Argentina, Australia, and Ukraine, with USDA raising exports for those Southern Hemisphere producers, while cutting trade figures for Russia and Ukraine.
The USDA’s next round of supply and demand numbers is out December 10th.
The most recent estimates for Iowa:
Corn: 2.803 billion bushels, compared to 2.762 billion in 2025; Average Yield: RECORD 219 bushels per acre, compared to 219 a month ago and 210 a year ago; Harvested Area: 12.8 million acres, compared to 13.15 million last year
Soybeans: 632.45 million bushels, compared to 595.63 million in 2025; Average Yield: RECORD 65 bushels per acre, compared to 63 a month ago and 63.5 a year ago; Harvested Area: 9.73 million acres, compared to 9.38 million last year
