The latest forecast shows severe weather making its way into Iowa tonight (Friday). National Weather Service Meteorologist Craig Cogill said late Thursday afternoon, that the initial primary threat will be heavy rain and hail, but the system has the potential to cause more serious damage on Saturday. “Right now, it looks like the best threat of severe weather is going to be across western Iowa where damaging winds, large hail and possibly a few tornadoes – especially during the late afternoon and evening hours – will be possible,” Cogill said. The much needed rain could range from one to two inches. If tornadoes touch down over the weekend in Iowa, it wouldn’t be unprecedented.
“Usually we see tornadoes in the fall about every other year or every third year,” Cogill said. “Certainly, it’s not a tornado season like we see from late April through June, but it’s not totally out of the question to see fall tornadoes.” The storm system is expected to leave Iowa Saturday night. The forecast for Sunday calls for highs mainly in the 60s.
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012
DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT:
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT…ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE OVERNIGHT WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE…INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS…LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE SEVERE STORMS ARE LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…
AN EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MULTI-MEDIA WEB BRIEFING HAS BEEN SCHEDULED FOR 1 PM ON FRIDAY. THIS BRIEFING WILL COVER THE UPCOMING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM TIME TO TIME LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN IOWA…
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS.
344 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012
TODAY…MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON…THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
TONIGHT…CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT…THEN THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WARMER. LOW IN THE MID 50S. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 70 PERCENT.
SATURDAY…THUNDERSTORMS…BREEZY…WARMER. HIGH IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 90 PERCENT.
SATURDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLOUDY. THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THROUGH MIDNIGHT…THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
SUNDAY…SUNNY…BREEZY. HIGH IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WIND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW IN THE MID 40S.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY…PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH IN THE MID 70S. LOW IN THE MID 50S.
Shelby County Emergency Management Coordinator Bob Seivert today (Thursday) advised the Fire Danger Index in his County is currently rated as “High.” Seivert says he expects winds to be strong this afternoon, and if there are any active fires, they will monitor the weather components very closely, and advise the local Incident Commander of dangerous conditions. Seivert says there should be NO OPEN BURNING in Shelby County today. The next local Fire Danger notice will be on Monday, Oct. 15th, unless unexpected changes in conditions occur.
The (podcast) Freese-Notis forecast for the KJAN listening area & weather data for Atlantic…
NWS/Des Moines (Issued 4:09-a.m. CDT Oct. 11th)
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT…BUT THE BIGGER THREAT WILL COME SATURDAY. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE…INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS…LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. DETAILS ON COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DETERMINED OVER THE 24 HOURS OR SO.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
400 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2012
TODAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOW IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.
FRIDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT…A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT…THEN THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WARMER. LOW IN THE MID 50S. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 70 PERCENT.
SATURDAY…CLOUDY. THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE MORNING…THEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY…WARMER. HIGH IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WIND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 70 PERCENT.
SATURDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT…THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW IN THE LOWER 50S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
SUNDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. COOLER. HIGH IN THE UPPER 60S.
SUNDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW IN THE UPPER 40S.
A powerful and potentially-dangerous storm front is developing which forecasters say could bring tornadoes and other severe weather to Iowa this weekend. Meteorologist Kevin Deitsch, at the National Weather Service, says our long dry spell is about to end, but not quietly. “A pretty strong system moving out of the southwest will eject from out of the Four Corners region northeast, up towards Iowa,” Deitsch says. “A pretty strong system will pull up quite a bit of moisture with it. We will see quite a bit of rain and with that, comes the potential for thunderstorms, some hail, wind and even tornadoes are possible with these storms.”
Deitsch says the storms will likely get their act together somewhere near the Missouri River on Saturday. He says the storms will likely develop over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa and push east across Iowa during the afternoon and evening. The storm system should be out of Iowa by late Saturday night, Deitsch says. The National Weather Service will monitor weather conditions for the Iowa State-Kansas State football game on Saturday, with an 11 A-M kickoff. Back in November of 2005, a tornado was reported directly west of I-S-U’s packed Jack Trice Stadium moments before the Iowa State-Colorado game, though the twister caused no damage.
The Freese-Notis (podcast) forecast for Atlantic & the KJAN listening area, & weather data for Atlantic.
353 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2012
TODAY…SUNNY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 60S. WEST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.
TONIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. NOT AS COOL. LOW IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
THURSDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
FRIDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT…CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT…THEN THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WARMER. LOW IN THE MID 50S. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 70 PERCENT.
SATURDAY…THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. BREEZY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 70S. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 60 PERCENT.
SATURDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE LOWER 50S.