FOR MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT & PAGE COUNTIES IN WESTERN IOWA….
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA…THEN THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS A SECONDARY CONCERN.
INCREASING HUMIDITY ON SOUTH WINDS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING WILL PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN THE OUTLOOK AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON…AIDED BY A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOP NEAR THIS STATIONARY WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE TO PRODUCE A TORNADO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT OR DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA DURING THE EVENING…WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY…
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAP ANY DEVELOPMENT UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THAT FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING…THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE REST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS…EVEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS…AS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH.
GREENE-BOONE-GUTHRIE & DALLAS COUNTIES:
…AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL IOWA…
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL IOWA THIS MORNING…WITH SOME LOCATIONS REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN
A QUARTER OF A MILE. SOME OF THE MAJOR ROADS IMPACTED BY THIS FOG
INCLUDE IOWA STATE HIGHWAY 141 AND US HIGHWAYS 169 AND 30.
IF YOU ENCOUNTER THIS FOG…SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA SPACE BETWEEN YOU
AND THE DRIVER AHEAD OF YOU. THIS FOG SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS.
Here’s the Freese-Notis (Podcast) forecast for Atlantic & the KJAN listening area, and the weather stat’s for Atlantic….
Today: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Calm wind becoming south southeast between 6 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tonight: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. South southeast wind between 5 and 9 mph. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Southeast wind between 7 and 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Saturday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Southeast wind between 7 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. Breezy, with a east wind 5 to 8 mph becoming north between 13 and 16 mph. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Sunday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 70.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 710 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012
TORNADO WATCH 234 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS:
IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE CASS CLARKE DAVIS DECATUR DES MOINES HENRY JEFFERSON KEOKUK LEE LOUISA LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MONROE RINGGOLD TAYLOR UNION VAN BUREN WAPELLO WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE.
341 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PARTLY SUNNY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 20 PERCENT.
TONIGHT…MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING…THEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WIND NEAR 5 MPH. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 40 PERCENT.
FRIDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOW IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.
SATURDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. HIGH IN THE MID 80S. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT…THEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. BREEZY. LOW IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 50 PERCENT.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. BREEZY. HIGH IN THE UPPER 70S. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 60 PERCENT.
313 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012
DAY ONE…THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT: THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS WELL. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND ALSO OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA NEARER A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN MISSOURI. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER WEST CENTRAL IOWA THIS EVENING WITH SOME SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE SLOWER MOVING STORMS AS MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE REGION.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
OUR RECENT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY STILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING REMAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION.
OTHER LESSER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK…BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND ENDING SUNDAY NIGHT.
Here’s the (podcast) forecast for the KJAN listening area, and the weather stats for Atlantic….
The Severe Thunderstorm Watch that was issued at 12:50-a.m. for parts of southwest Iowa, has been cancelled for Cass and Adams Counties. The watch remains in effect until 5-a.m. for: FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE & POTTAWATTAMIE Counties.
237 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2012
…STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS…
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO PORTIONS OF SAC COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH CRAWFORD COUNTY…AND INTO TAYLOR AND ADAMS COUNTIES THROUGH 4 AM CDT…AND THEN FURTHER EAST THROUGH AROUND 5 AM CDT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM CDT for: ADAMS CASS FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE & TAYLOR Counties.
The storms produced penny to nickel-sized hail at around 2:45-a.m. near Shenandoah, in Page County.