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Will global warming mean an end to Iowa blizzards? Wishful thinking…

News, Weather

August 29th, 2014 by Ric Hanson

A national report on climate change finds even with global warming, we’ll still have plenty of snow in the winters ahead in Iowa and across much of the country’s northern half. State Climatologist Harry Hillaker says climate change is very gradual and snow blowers and shovels will remain necessities. Hillaker says the report from M-I-T didn’t exactly go out on a limb in predicting continued snowy winters for Iowa.

“When you think about it, that’s not really much of a surprise, I guess the basic mechanism on how we get snow is not going to be changing in a warmer world,” Hillaker says. “The number of opportunities may be decreasing but the storms could be just as intense but probably not as frequent as what we’ve been seeing in years past.” The Old Farmers’ Almanac forecasts the winter ahead will be colder than usual, then next summer will be hotter. The publication predicts winter temperatures, precipitation and snowfall will all be below normal, with the coldest period running from early December into the first half of January. Hillaker says it’s an extreme challenge to accurately predict the weather several months in advance.

“Certainly, not very easily and there’s lots of outfits out there like the Farmer’s Almanac and some private forecasters that attempt to do that sort of thing,” Hillaker says. “I don’t know if anyone’s attempted any kind of study of how accurate those prognostications are, but certainly it’s very, very difficult and we’ve got a long ways to go in those longer-range outlooks.” While scientific advancements are making forecasts more on-target, Hillaker says no one can really predict now, at summer’s end, what the weather will be this winter.

“Certainly, the day-by-day forecasts, out a week or two, have gotten far, far better than they used to be just in the last 20 or 30 years, tremendous improvements,” Hillaker says. “On that longer range, say from 30 days on out, there’s some skill there, but still a lot of guess work.” The M-I-T study predicts some regions will see less snowfall, but the snowfall extremes may actually intensify. Hillaker notes, Iowa’s had above-average snowfall in seven of the past eight winters.

(Radio Iowa)

Flood Warning cancelled for East Nishnabotna River at Red Oak

Weather

August 29th, 2014 by Ric Hanson

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
701 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

…THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER…

EAST NISHNABOTNA RIVER AT RED OAK AFFECTING MONTGOMERY COUNTY.

* AT 6:45 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.3 FEET…OR 2.7 FEET BELOW
FLOOD STAGE.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* FORECAST…THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 17.8 FEET. THE
RIVER WILL FALL TO 13.6 FEET

Flood Warning update: Nodaway River at Clarinda – Moderate flooding expected

Weather

August 29th, 2014 by Ric Hanson

829 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN IOWA…NODAWAY RIVER AT CLARINDA AFFECTING PAGE COUNTY.

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE NODAWAY RIVER AT CLARINDA.
* AT 7:15 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.1 FEET…OR 3.1 FEET ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 23.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST…THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 26.3 FEET BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT.

Updated Nat’l. Weather Svc. forecast for Cass & area Counties

Weather

August 29th, 2014 by Ric Hanson

731 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TODAY…MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. THEN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MID MORNING. HIGH IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT…MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT…THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW IN THE LOWER 60S. WEST WIND NEAR 10 MPH. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 50 PERCENT.

SATURDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 80S. WEST WIND AROUND 5 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW IN THE MID 60S. SOUTH WIND NEAR 5 MPH.

SUNDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH IN THE MID 80S. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT…THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOW IN THE MID 60S. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 70 PERCENT.

LABOR DAY…PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

24-hour rainfall in the KJAN listening area (as of 7-a.m. 8/29)

Weather

August 29th, 2014 by Ric Hanson

Atlantic (KJAN) – .64″;  Massena – 4.9″; Villisca – 2.6″; Red Oak – 1.15; Audubon – 1.06; Emerson – 1.0″; Shenandoah – .94″.

(Podcast) Skyscan Forecast: Fri., Aug. 29th 2014

Podcasts, Weather

August 29th, 2014 by Ric Hanson

The Freese-Notis weather forecast for Atlantic & the KJAN listening area, and weather information for Atlantic.

Play

Flood Warning for the East Nishnabotna River at Red Oak

Weather

August 29th, 2014 by Ric Hanson

A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST NISHNABOTNA RIVER AT RED OAK AFFECTING MONTGOMERY COUNTY UNTIL THIS EVENING…OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.

* AT 12:00 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.6 FEET…OR 0.4 FEET BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST…RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS MORNING TO NEAR 18.5 FEET. THE RIVER WILL THEN FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS MORNING.
* IMPACT…AT 18.0 FEET…RURAL LOWLANDS BEGIN TO FLOOD ALONG THE EAST BANK.

NWS forecast for the KJAN listening area: Fri., 8/29/2014

Weather

August 29th, 2014 by Ric Hanson

346 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING…NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 70 PERCENT.

TODAY…MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING…THEN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MID MORNING. HIGH IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT…MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT…THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW IN THE LOWER 60S. WEST WIND NEAR 10 MPH. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 50 PERCENT.

SATURDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 80S. WEST WIND AROUND 5 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW IN THE MID 60S. SOUTH WIND NEAR 5 MPH.

SUNDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH IN THE MID 80S. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOW IN THE MID 60S. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 70 PERCENT.

LABOR DAY…PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH AROUND 80.

Flood Warning: Nodaway River at Clarinda

News, Weather

August 29th, 2014 by Ric Hanson

A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NODAWAY RIVER AT CLARINDA (AFFECTING PAGE COUNTY).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR VEHICLE TO PASS SAFELY.

* AT 1:15 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.7 FEET…OR 1.7 FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

* FLOOD STAGE IS 23.0 FEET.

* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.

* FORECAST…THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 25.8 FEET THIS MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

* IMPACT…AT 24.0 FEET…ADDITIONAL LOWLANDS, SOME FARMLANDS, AND COUNTY ROADS FLOOD.

Special Weather Statement for Cass & area counties

Weather

August 28th, 2014 by Ric Hanson

AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-CASS-ADAIR-ADAMS-TAYLOR-

746 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

…MORE STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING…

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA FROM NEAR CLARINDA TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN AVOCA AND STUART. THE STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING AND QUITE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS WITH PONDING WATER ON ROADS AND RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. RAINFALL RATES MAY REACH ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

AVOID DRIVING THROUGH STANDING WATER OR FLOODED AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND DISENGAGE CRUISE CONTROL IN HEAVIER RAINS AND BE AWARE OF HYDROPLANING.