NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK; 220 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

TORNADO WATCH 142 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE:

ADAIR ADAMS AUDUBON CASS FREMONT HARRISON MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE RINGGOLD SHELBY TAYLOR UNION

OMAHA, Neb. (AP) — Forecasters are warning that strong thunderstorms and possibly tornadoes could develop in eastern Nebraska and Iowa this afternoon. The National Weather Service says there is a moderate risk of severe weather in the area through tonight. A tornado warning was issued at midday for south-central Iowa and there were reports of strong winds and quarter-size hail near Osceola.

The weather service says parts of central and northern Kansas, southeastern Nebraska and most of Iowa are likely to see strong thunderstorms, large hail, strong winds and tornadoes.

Yesterday, heavy storms and at least one tornado hit northwestern Missouri, damaging homes and power lines. No injuries were reported. The National Weather Service said a confirmed tornado hit the Ray County town of Orrick last evening.

840 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
MILLS IA-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-SARPY NE-CASS NE-
840 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 AM CDT
FOR MILLS…SOUTHWESTERN POTTAWATTAMIE…SARPY AND NORTHERN CASS
COUNTIES…

AT 839 AM CDT…SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR MILLARD TO NEAR WEEPING WATER…MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 60 MPH.

HAZARD…60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 140 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING:

MONTGOMERY and PAGE COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…CLARINDA…RED OAK AND SHENANDOAH.

COUNTIES PREVIOUSLY INCLUDED IN THE WATCH: FREMONT,MILLS & POTTAWATTAMIE.

829 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014
FREMONT IA-PAGE IA-MILLS IA-MONTGOMERY IA-

…SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MILLS…PAGE…
WESTERN MONTGOMERY AND EASTERN FREMONT COUNTIES UNTIL 915 AM CDT…

AT 828 AM CDT…DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES EAST OF HAMBURG…OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF TARKIO…MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. OTHER STORMS NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND MISSOURI
BORDER AREA WILL ALSO TRACK INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS MORNING.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
RED OAK…CLARINDA…SHENANDOAH…HAMBURG…ESSEX…STANTON…
FARRAGUT…ELLIOTT…RIVERTON…COIN…COLLEGE SPRINGS…SHAMBAUGH…
BRADDYVILLE…YORKTOWN…IMOGENE…NORTHBORO…COBURG…BLANCHARD…
HEPBURN AND PIERCE RECREATION AREA.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY…SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS…AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS…FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT
SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.

BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
825 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
MILLS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA…
SOUTHWESTERN POTTAWATTAMIE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA…
SOUTHEASTERN SAUNDERS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA…
SARPY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA…
NORTHERN CASS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA…

* UNTIL 915 AM CDT

* AT 825 AM CDT…SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR YUTAN TO NEAR ELMWOOD…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70
MPH.

HAZARD…60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT…HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS…SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
SOUTHERN COUNCIL BLUFFS…BELLEVUE…PAPILLION…LA VISTA…
PLATTSMOUTH…GLENWOOD…GRETNA…ASHLAND…SPRINGFIELD…
MALVERN…LOUISVILLE…TREYNOR…PACIFIC JUNCTION…CEDAR CREEK…
MURDOCK…OFFUTT AFB…SILVER CITY…MANLEY…HASTINGS AND SOUTH
BEND.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS…
HIGHWAY 34 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 23.
HIGHWAY 75 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 73 AND 85 .
INTERSTATE 29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 27 AND 48.
INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 420 AND 444.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

Forecasters are warning residents of Iowa and nearby states to stay alert to the likelihood of an explosive outbreak of severe weather today. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 10-a.m. for Fremont, Mills and Pottawattamie County. National Weather Service Meteorologist Kenny Podrazik, in Johnston, told KJAN News people need to be ready to react quickly, especially if you are planning to be outdoors. Severe storms popped-up early this morning in southeast Nebraska, and were moving toward western Iowa.

Podrazik says there will essentially be two rounds of storms today. The first round will move through this morning, bringing with it the possibility of large hail and heavy rain. After those storms move northeast and clear out by mid-day, that will allow the atmosphere to become even more unstable and set the stage for severe weather this afternoon and tonight. Podrazik says they’re expecting Super Cell tornadoes and large hail. The potential exists for large, long-tracking tornadoes with this event, which forecasters began warning about early Saturday morning.

He says while it’s hard to tell how bad the tornadoes might rate on the “Enhanced Fujita Scale”until after the damage is done, the experts have an idea of what we might expect. Podrazik says the Severe Storms Prediction Center in Norman, OK., does have a “10-percent ‘hatched’ area across much of central and southwest Iowa.” That means there’s a 10-percent chance of an EF-2 to EF-5 tornado within 25 miles of a certain point. An EF-2 consists of 111-to 135-mile per hour winds and causes considerable damage. An EF-5 packs winds of up to 200-miles per hour and cause “Incredible damage.”

He says that while 10% may not seem like a high probability, climatologically speaking, it’s a pretty good chance for Iowa. Podrazik says residents need to stay close to their NOAA Weather Radio, tune-in area TV and/or Radio stations, and be prepared to act if the sirens sound in their community. Other ways to follow the storm watches and warnings are on social media, including Facebook and Twitter, and at www.weather.gov/desmoines.

If severe weather strikes, get to the lowest level of your home or business, underneath a staircase or heavy-duty table. If that’s not available, go to an interior room in the building without windows, get as low as possible and cover yourself with blankets. Opening the windows during a tornado WILL NOT matter as far as equalizing pressure in the home and trying to prevent damage. Seeking shelter should be your first and only priority.

AREA COUNTIES: SAC-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-ADAMS-UNION-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD; 517 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS…POTENTIALLY SEVERE…WILL AFFECT CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MULTIPLE STRONG AND LONG TRACK TORNADOES ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT LEADING TO
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

AREA COUNTIES: MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-PAGE.   429 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS MORNING. LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM FOR THIS AREA. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW ORGANIZES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.

THE NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS BY NOON AND BEYOND. THE FRONT AT THAT TIME COULD LIFT TO A CRETE NEBRASKA TO RED OAK IOWA LINE. STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE WARM FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL…DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.

THE BEST AREA FOR THE SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 10 TO 25 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS THROUGH AND ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON…THEN LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM A TRIPLE POINT WHICH COULD BE BETWEEN COLUMBUS AND LINCOLN…THEN MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT…DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE REGION…COMBINED WITH STORMS REPEATEDLY TRACKING ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS COULD BRING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. WHILE 3 HOURLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH…MULTIPLE STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE SAME AREAS COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

• Today ** Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10-a.m. for Fremont, Mills & Pottawattamie Counties** Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 4pm. Some storms could be severe, with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Breezy, with an east wind 7 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
• Tonight Showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could be severe. Low around 57. Breezy, with a south southeast wind 8 to 17 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
• Monday A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 56 by 10am. Breezy, with a west northwest wind 7 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
• Monday Night A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 42. Breezy, with a west northwest wind 11 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
• Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 61. Breezy, with a west northwest wind 11 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
• Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 42.
• Wednesday A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 62.