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Report: Iowa may have a warmer winter

News, Weather

October 25th, 2023 by Ric Hanson

(Radio Iowa) – Iowa could be in store for a warmer-than-normal winter ahead, according to the long-range forecast from the Climate Prediction Center. State climatologist Justin Glisan says the report calls for a warming trend for the upper Midwest during the climatological winter, which runs from December 1st through February 29th.  “This goes hand in hand with being in a moderate-to-strong El Nino,” Glisan says. “Typically, El Nino winters are warmer than average and that can have an impact on the type of precipitation we get.” A warmer winter might make you think we’d have less snow, but he says that’s not always the case.

“If we look at snowfall patterns going back to 1950, with moderate-to-strong El Ninos, we typically see less snow but that doesn’t necessarily mean that we see less precipitation,” Glisan says, “however, if we look at the Climate Prediction Center’s precipitation outlook, no clear signal there.” Glisan says precipitation in Iowa varied from past winter seasons.

“If we look at the last few El Nino winters that we have had, 2010, 2016 and 2019, we’ve kind of been all over the board in terms of precipitation,” he says. “2010 was the 45th wettest, 2016 was the 31st wettest, but then you go to 2019, very wet conditions and the third wettest on record.” While the report predicts the winter ahead may be warmer for Iowa and the region, it shows above-average precipitation for much of the southeastern U-S, and below average precip across parts of the north.

Skyscan Forecast for Atlantic & the Nishna Valley: Wed., Oct. 25, 2023

Weather

October 25th, 2023 by Ric Hanson

Today: Cloudy w/a chance of showers late. High near 70. W/NW winds @ 5 to 10 mph becoming E/SE this afternoon.

Tonight: Cloudy & breezy, w/a 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low around 62. S @ 10-25 mph.

Thursday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 70. S/SW @ 15-25.

Thursday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low around 39.

Friday: Mostly cloudy & breezy, with a high near 46.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 28.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy w/a 40% chance of rain and snow showers after 1pm. High near 39.

Tuesday’s High temperature in Atlantic was 79. As of 5-a.m., rainfall in Atlantic amounted to .05″.  Our Low this morning, 58. Last year on this date (Oct. 25), the High in Atlantic was 56 and the Low was 26. The All-Time Record High was 85 in 1891 & 1940. The Record Low was 14 in 1892. Sunrise us 7:42. Sunset is 6:24.

Skyscan Forecast for Atlantic & the Nishna Valley: Tue., Oct. 24, 2023

Weather

October 24th, 2023 by Ric Hanson

Today: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 76. Windy, with a south southwest wind 15 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Tonight: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 60. South wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 7am and 1pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 72. West southwest wind 5 to 11 mph becoming northeast in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Thursday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 70. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49. Breezy.

Rain this week could help with drought

Ag/Outdoor, News, Weather

October 23rd, 2023 by Ric Hanson

(Radio Iowa) – There’s still hope that the remainder of the fall will bring heavier moisture than normal that can help cut back the ongoing drought in Iowa. D-N-R hydrologist Tim Hall says recent rains weren’t enough to make a big dent, but did erase the areas of D-4 or extreme drought. “Areas of Benton and Tama County that were previously in the D-4classification saw enough rain to improve to D-3. But improvement to D-3 is still D-3,” he says. The D-3 designation is extreme drought compared to the D-4 exceptional drought designation. There is only a small sliver of the state that has no drought. Hall says late fall has not been the best time to make up a moisture deficit, though there have been exceptions.

” By the time we get to November, we see less than two inches of rain over the entire month. However, a couple years ago, we saw a very wet October, we’ve seen very wet fall months before,” Hall says. “So there’s certainly the opportunity to see noticeable and really helpful rainfall.” He says warmer temperatures would help, as they keep the ground from freezing and shutting out water. “The first thing that happens when it rains is you get water into the soil matrix and you improve soil moisture. And after that, the water can move down into shallow groundwater. That all sort of comes to an end with the ground freeze up. You tend to get very rapid runoff in ground freeze up and not as much benefit,” Hall says.

The short term forecast has the potential for some rains in the coming week.”There could be widespread rain in the one to two inch rain across a lot of the state. So there’s there’s some optimism that between now and the end of the month we could see another inch plus of rain which would certainly be great,” he says. ” I mean at now, anything we get over about three quarters of an inch in a week is above normal. So we’d love to see that.”

Hall says any rain we get before the ground freezes is a bonus in helping build up of the groundwater that has been way behind for months.

Skyscan Forecast for Atlantic & the Nishna Valley: Monday, Oct. 23, 2023

Weather

October 23rd, 2023 by Ric Hanson

Today: Sunny & breezy, with a high near 78. S/SW winds 15-25 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy & windy, with a low around 66. S @ 15-30 mph.

Tuesday: P/Sunny & windy, w/a 50% chance of showers & thunderstorms. A high near 75. S/SW @ 15-30 mph.

Tuesday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 60. S @ 10-25 mph.

Wednesday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 73. S @ 10-20 mph.

Thursday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Breezy. High near 67.

Sunday’s High in Atlantic was 65. The low was 32. We received a few sprinkles late Sunday afternoon, here at KJAN. Last year on this date, the high in Atlantic was 84 and the low was 58. The record high for Oct. 23rd in Atlantic was last year’s High of 84. The record Low was 13 in 1895. Sunrise is at 7:40. Sunset is at 6:27.

Skyscan Forecast for Atlantic & the Nishna Valley: Sunday, Oct. 22, 2023

Weather

October 22nd, 2023 by Ric Hanson

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 66. Light and variable wind becoming southeast 6 to 11 mph in the morning.
Tonight: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between midnight and 5am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 52. East southeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Monday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9am. Sunny, with a high near 79. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.
Tuesday: A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 10am. Partly sunny, with a high near 76. Windy, with a south wind 18 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 67. Breezy.

Saturday’s High in Atlantic was 70. Our low this morning, 32. Last year on this date, the high in Atlantic was 82 and the low was 57. The record high for Oct. 22nd in Atlantic was 87 in 1899. The record Low was 15 in 1976. Sunrise is at 7:40. Sunset is at 6:29.

Skyscan Forecast for Atlantic & the Nishna Valley: Saturday, Oct. 21, 2023

Weather

October 21st, 2023 by Ric Hanson

Today: Sunny & breezy. High near 67. North northwest wind 10-20 mph w/gusts to around 25.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 38. North northeast wind 5-10 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 65. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy w/a 60% chance of showers and possibly thunderstorms. Low around 50. SE winds @ 10-20 mph. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Monday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise Sunny, with a high near 78.

Monday Night: Cloudy & windy w/a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Low around 59.

Tuesday: P/Sunny & windy w/a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High near 73.

Friday’s High in Atlantic was 77. The low was 36. Last year on this date, the high in Atlantic was 78 and the low was 33. The record high for Oct. 21st in Atlantic was 87 in 1947. The record Low was 13 in 1930. Sunrise is at 7:38. Sunset is at 6:30.

Iowa Drought Monitor shows conditions improved in parts of the State over the past week

Ag/Outdoor, News, Weather

October 20th, 2023 by Ric Hanson

(NWS/Des Moines, Iowa) – The latest U-S Drought Monitor report from the National Weather Service in Des Moines, shows drought conditions improved in portions of northern and eastern Iowa during the past week. The report, issued Thursday, Oct. 19th, showed none of Iowa’s 99 counties are in an Exceptional Drought (D4). Portions of eastern Iowa are in an Extreme Drought (D3). Severe Drought (D2) conditions are found outside those counties in an Extreme Drought, and extends across much of southern and west central Iowa, to include the extreme northern, western and southwestern portions of Cass County, all of Pottawattamie, Harrison and Shelby Counties, and portions of Audubon, Guthrie, Adair, Mills, Montgomery and Adams Counties.

Moderate Drought (D1) or Abnormally Dry (D-O) conditions exist in areas of the State not already covered by the D2, D3 or D4 Drought conditions. Officials say the 30-day precipitation totals are now above normal for much of northwest Iowa and eastern portions of the State. The largest deficits are across southern Iowa. The seven-day precipitation forecast call for dry conditions this weekend, with an increasing threat of rainfall into next week.

The eight-to 14-day outlook indicates a better chance of below normal temperatures across Iowa, with near normal precipitation during that time frame. The bottom line: Drought conditions are expected to persist across Iowa through the end of this month. (Click on the graphics to enlarge)

Skyscan Forecast for Atlantic & the Nishna Valley: Friday, Oct. 20, 2023

Weather

October 20th, 2023 by Ric Hanson

(Updated)  Today: Sunny, with a high near 75. W/NW winds becoming W/SW @ 5-10 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 48. S-NW @ 10-20.
Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 64. N/NW @ 15-25 mph.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 38.
Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. SE @ 5-10 mph.
Sunday Night: A 60% chance of showers & possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 49.
Monday: Sunny & windy, with a high near 76.
Monday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 57.

Thursday’s High in Atlantic was 69. The low was 38. Last year on this date, the high in Atlantic was 69 and the low was 25. The record high for Oct. 20th in Atlantic was 87 in 1947 & 2003. The record low was 14 in 1960. Sunrise is at 7:38. Sunset is at 6:32.

Skyscan Forecast for Atlantic & the Nishna Valley: Thursday, Oct. 19, 2023

Weather

October 19th, 2023 by Ric Hanson

Today: Patchy drizzle this morning; Partly sunny, with a high near 67. West/Northwest wind 10-20 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 42. Northwest wind around 7 mph.
Friday: Sunny, with a high near 75. W/SW @ 5–15 mph w/gusts to near 20.
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 47. W/NW @ 10-20 mph.
Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 65. N/NW @ 10-20 mph.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 38.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 63.

Wednesday’s High in Atlantic was 68. The low was 52. Last year on this date, the high in Atlantic was 55 and the low was 12. The record high for Oct. 19th in Atlantic was 88 in 2003. The record low was 12 in 1972 and 2022. Sunrise is at 7:36. Sunset is at 6:33.